Tour Rest Day Thoughts, Part 2
By any measure, this has been a great Tour so far. A couple of French breakaway wins (in the first two days, which is a bit odd, but OK). Cavendish making history. Biniam Girmay making history. Slugfests in the mountains, all great stuff. The third week will probably not live up to the first two, but it will still be a great Tour.
Some thoughts:
It is doubtful that the third week will be as interesting, because most things are already pretty wrapped up. Girmay is going to be in Green. Remco in White and Pogačar in Yellow and Pois. All assuming they don't fall off and break their legs, of course. Also assuming it is not 40C+ in the Alps.
This week features a sprint stage that maybe Wout will win to spice things up, but probably between Girmay and Phillipsen. A rolling stage that could go to a break, but could possibly be a sprint, especially if Phillipsen wins on Tuesday.
Two more mountain stages where VLAB make probably unsuccessful attempts to break Pogačar, meaning no breakaways again. Remco wins the final time trial as everyone just heads off to their hotel after they finish, so no big party on the streets of Nice.
Visma and Jonas have put up a great fight so far, but clearly Jonas is (understandably) just one or two percent off. His performance has been absolutely amazing considering what he has been through. As a team, VLAB is not even close to where they were for the last two years. Wout can't climb at all this year, Kuss (who to be fair has been terrible all year) is out. Their big Classics guys are either down or out. They just don't have the strength to crack UAE as they have done for the past two years.
Remco has actually done much better than I expected. Yes, he is certainly a notch below Jonas and Pogi, but he has ridden with real maturity this year, not blowing himself up and learning the craft of a GC rider. I can certainly see him doing a Giro/Vuelta double someday, perhaps more than once. Perhaps with a stronger team, he could put up an even better fight for the Yellow Jersey.
I am a big fan of Primož Roglič and I have to say that he was closer to winning form than I thought he would be. It is a real shame that he crashed out. He and Jonas together might have been able to put enough pressure on Pogi to make this race extremely interesting going into the third week. But it was not to be. Hard to see him in the same form next year, but we shall see. I would love to see him win a Tour, but I don't think it is meant to be.
So, I think that Pogačar holds on to the Jersey until Nice, but then what? This could be very interesting, indeed.
All of this is total speculation and I could be totally off base, but this is what I think. I think Pog tries to do the triple and win the Vuelta.
Pogačar clearly wants a place in the history books and why shouldn't he? But how can he best make history for the rest of this season?
An Olympic Gold Medal and/or World Championship would certainly fit the bill for that. But both of those are a bit of a crap shoot, especially for a rider like Pogačar. Yes, he is certainly capable of winning Classics and Monuments, but it is by no means a sure thing. He is not going to win a bunch sprint of any kind against people like Phillipsen, Melier and Girmay. Has a great chance in an attritional kind of race, but so does Pederson, Wout and MVDP. He is not going to beat Remco, Josh Tarling and Ganna in the time trials.
He's already won Lombardia three times, so not much history happening there. Being the first guy to win all three Grand Tours in one season, now there is some history!
It was a big deal when one TEAM won all three last year. It was actually a pretty big deal (that unfairly went quite a bit under the radar) that Sepp Kuss rode in all three tours and won one of them.
Pogačar could make history in a very big way.
Some very obvious arguments against it, of course. Pogi wouldn't even think of it if he feels at all below 100%. He won't go there to come in second. Jonas and Roglič might take a shot at it to get something out of the season and they might be able to double team Pog. UAE might be against it to give Adam Yates and Ayuso something to win this year.
But there is a real possibility at this point. Remco and Roglič are said to be concentrating on the Olympics (and Worlds, I presume). Vingegaard might just call it a season after the Tour to rest up and get even better for next year, leaving Jorgenson and Kuss as leaders for VLAB. Red Bull/Bora probably wouldn't even have Vlasov. Ineos would maybe go with Rodriguez. Who else has a GC contender that is better than even a 95% Pog at this point? It would be like the Giro all over again.
I am thinking that a Grand Tour triple is within reach for Pogačar. That would be history. It is almost hard to see how he doesn't try.